The planning process begins with building a sales plan. For small retailers,
most sales plans are broken out by the month, although in some cases, especially
highly seasonal businesses or categories, it may be more appropriate to plan
sales by the week. The question to ask is a very basic one: "What is the most
likely level of sales from stock (excluding special orders) by month (or week)?"
Once a sales plan has been developed, the next piece of the planning process
is to build an inventory plan. The question to ask is this: "How much inventory
do I need at the end of each month to support the next month's sales (in some
cases the ending inventory may need to support more than just one month of
future sales), as well as maintain effective merchandise displays?"
From there, other things like inventory adjustments and markdowns need to be
planned.
Finally, from the plans that have been developed, an inventory receipt plan
can be arrived at. For any given period (month or week), the planned inventory
receipts is the planned ending inventory, plus the planned sales, markdowns and
inventory adjustments, less the prior month's ending inventory. Stated another
way, the planned inventory receipts answers the question, "How much inventory do
I need to bring in to cover my sales, markdowns and adjustments, given my
planned beginning inventory, in order to end up with my planned ending
inventory?"
The inventory receipt plan serves several important functions. First, it
serves as the inventory purchasing plan for future months. While it doesn't tell
you specifically what to buy, (you need an assortment plan for that), it does
tell you how much you need to by for receipt in each month. Second, because
inventory purchases are typically the most significant cash outflow for a small
retailer, the inventory purchasing plan serves as a critical input into a
financial cash flow plan.
The completed Open-To-Buy plan also enables a small retailer to evaluate,
before the season starts, critical inventory productivity metric like inventory
turnover and gross margin return on investment GMROI) (see "Measuring Inventory
Productivity"). These are critical measures of the productivity of the inventory
investment, and evaluating the planned turnover and GMROI allows the small
retailer to pro-actively manage these metrics for continual improvement.
In Season
A completed Open-To-Buy plan establishes the critical benchmarks for
evaluating exactly where you are once you get into the season. It's after the
season gets underway that an Open-To-Buy truly earns its keep. In season, key
decisions have to be made about what to reorder, what to back off on, and how to
allocate any remaining Open-To-Buy dollars.
A well structured Open-To-Buy will present both the plan and actual results,
and allow management to track the progress as the season goes along. Actual
sales can be compared to planned sales, actual receipts to planned receipts,
actual ending inventories to planned ending inventories, future open purchase
order quantities to planned receipts for each month.
Like any good budget, an Open-To-Buy needs to have a future orientation. It
needs to be able to tell management how much inventory is needed in any future
month to make the sales and ending inventory plans, given the current purchase
order commitments for that month.
The open-to-buy through any given month is the planned ending inventory less
the projected actual ending inventory. For prior months it quantifies whether
the company was over-inventoried or under-inventoried. For future months, it
identifies through any given month whether additional inventory is needed or
whether too much inventory has already been committed to.
The open-to-buy within any given month is the planned receipts for that month
less the current purchase commitments. For prior months it measures the
efficiency of the buyers and vendors in providing inventory as planned. For
future months, especially for future seasons, it quantifies any remaining
available open-to-buy for that specific month.
Like any management tool, an Open-To-Buy is merely a tool to help a small
retailer better manage their inventory. It requires an initial investment in
time and attention to build out a realistic plan, and diligence to maintain it
as you go through the year or a season. But it can yield dramatic results
quickly in most situations, from increased sales to leaner inventories and
reduced markdowns and overstocks. It's a tool that in the hands of a fully
committed small retailer can profoundly improve financial performance.
Copyright Ted Hurlbut 2007
Ted Hurlbut is the Principal of Hurlbut & Associates, which
helps retailers, wholesalers, importers and distributors improve the
productivity of their inventory investment. Visit
www.hurlbutassociates.com for more information.